Florian Berg
MIT Sloan School of Management
The market for voluntary carbon offsets
Monday, December 8, 2025 –05:15 – 06:30 PM (CET)
This session will be held online only. To join virtually, please register in advance using this link.
Seminar Abstract
We study pricing in the voluntary carbon market (VCM) using a novel proprietary dataset of sales of emission reduction certificates (credits) by a leading VCM dealer. We document extraordinary price dispersion, with carbon credits trading between a few cents and $100 per ton of CO2. Prices are systematically related to the credit project, buyer, and trade characteristics, rather than to a common value of carbon emissions. Credits from the least reliable emission reduction technologies, but with positive non- carbon externalities, are twice as expensive as trusted industrial solutions. Buyers in low-emission industries, wealthier countries, and large firms pay a premium for carbon credits, while heavy polluters and firms with explicit sustainability commitments do not. VCM pricing also features volume and client relationship discounts typical for over-the-counter markets. Finally, we document a causal link between the introduction of the VCM futures market and price premia for credits eligible for expiring futures settlement.
Speaker Bio
Florian Berg is a research scientist at the MIT Sloan School of Management where he cofounded and co-runs the Aggregate Confusion Project. His research interest covers sustainability-related measurement with a focus on ESG ratings, disclosure, investor impact, carbon accounting, and voluntary carbon markets. He received his PhD in financial economics from Paris-Dauphine University. During his PhD, he held a visiting research position at ETH Zurich. Florian worked as a quantitative researcher at Amundi Asset Management and as a quantitative strategist/
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