MZES Speaker series: Party Positioning on Immigration and Immigrant Voting

Abstract: 

Across Europe, mainstream parties have increasingly adopted more restrictive positions on immigration, even as immigrant-origin electorates continue to grow. How these voters respond to such shifts remains unclear. Existing research suggests two competing possibilities. Immigrant-origin voters may express solidarity with other immigrants and therefore oppose restrictive immigration policies, or they may perceive further immigration as an economic or cultural threat and support such policies. We argue that these perspectives characterize different segments of immigrant electorates rather than alternative explanations for a common response. Using survey data from 35 European countries linked to party manifestos, we first demonstrate that there is no systematic relationship between parties' immigration positions and their electoral support among immigrant-origin voters on the aggregate level. However, evidence from a conjoint experiment in Germany reveals substantial heterogeneity. Left-wing immigrant-origin voters tend to penalize restrictive immigration positions, whereas right-wing immigrant-origin voters reward them. These differences are closely linked to attitudes toward immigration, suggesting that immigrant electorates are far from unified in how they respond to immigration policy.

Anyone interested can either attend in person or join via Zoom using this link.