Extreme Weather Events: How Heat, Drought, and Flooding Affect European Regions in the Long Term

Heat waves, droughts and floods do not only have short-term consequences. A new study published in the journal European Economic Review shows that such extreme events can significantly weaken the economic strength of entire regions in Europe, even years later. Two years after a heat wave, the regional gross domestic product is on average 1.5 percentage points lower. After four years, the regional gross domestic product is even 3 percentage points below the previous level after droughts, and 2.8 percentage points below the previous level after floods. Population figures and productivity in the regions are particularly affected.
Local differences are crucial
The study analyzed 1,160 regions in the European Union at the level of so-called NUTS 3 areas, i.e. comparable to rural districts (Landkreise) or urban districts (Stadtkreise) in Germany. The researchers used weather data and compared it with economic data from the respective regions. They used a method that makes it possible to identify causal relationships over several years. The result: Regions with low incomes or high temperatures, such as Italy and Spain, are particularly hard hit.