Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance Weakened the AfD More than Expected

Since its foundation in early 2024, the BSW has successfully participated in the European elections and state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, achieving double-digit election results. Previous post-election surveys suggested that the majority of votes for the BSW came primarily from the SPD and the Left Party – and not from the Alternative for Germany (AfD). A new study at the University of Mannheim now shows that the dynamics of the vote shift were much more complex, and that the BSW was also successful in appealing to supporters who had defected to the AfD by October 2023. The study has been published in the journal “Research and Politics”.
“Our results show that the AfD is leading when it comes to the migration of votes towards BSW – just ahead of the Left. The CDU/
The team compared the GLES surveys from the 2021 federal elections and from October 2023, when the BSW did not yet exist, with the data after the 2024 European elections. The comparison showed that part of the electorate had actually originally intended to vote for the AfD and only opted for the BSW after the new party was founded. The data also shows that the BSW has difficulties in attracting AfD core voters and that it is significantly more successful in attracting AfD supporters who were newly convinced by the party by October 2023.
Rejecting the support for Ukraine turned out to be the dominant issue driving people to the BSW – across the entire party spectrum. Those who voted for the BSW are generally more skeptical about the German support for Ukraine. When making their voting decisions, BSW voters also attach particular importance to the fact that the party combines social welfare policy with an anti-immigration stance – a combination that is not found in this form in any other party.
“Our results underline the increasing flexibility and volatility of European voters,” the authors conclude. “Ultimately, our study contributes to a critical discussion about whether the BSW can reduce mobilization for the AfD.”
Heckmann, L., Wurthmann, L. C., Wagner, S. Who's afraid of Sahra – Understanding the shift in votes towards Germany's Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht. Research and Politics (2025): journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20531680241311504