Researchers predict outcomes of the Bundestag elections at federal and local level

Polling results point to a high-stakes election night set for February 23. Some parties that are currently represented in the Bundestag may be concerned about their chances of reaching the five percent threshold, while a newcomer, the BSW, is eager to make its parliamentary debut. As a result of the electoral law reform, it is likely that constituencies will experience their first instance of not being represented in the Bundestag through a direct mandate, even with a candidate who has been directly elected.
But how reliable are the latest polls? What changes can be expected from now until election day? What are the odds of independent candidates securing a mandate? Researchers have been working on these questions in the Zweitstimme.orgproject since the 2017 general election. For this year's Bundestag elections, a team of interdisciplinary researchers led by Prof. Thomas Gschwend, Ph.D. (University of Mannheim), Prof. Dr. Simon Munzert (Hertie School) and Prof. Dr. Lukas Stötzer (University of Witten/